Lykken on Lending

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 1.29.24 "Break The Rules" To Break The Ice Jam----------------------------Erratic buysBlow our mindsBears feel alright What does mechanical trading, dipping volatility, and bubbling crude tell us? Short-term Treasuries are losing hope in a March ease while the long-end is ambivalent. Bonds like ebbing inflation, but they … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 1.22.24 It's A "Love Story" If Buyers Say Yes!------------------------Bonds got tired of waiting.Wondering if Jay was ever coming around. Did the Bond buyers buy on Friday? Happy consumers bought by draining savings and using credit cards earlier in the week. Where did the new era of frugality go? Will the Fed reduce … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 1.15.24 "Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood" Signs of Misunderstanding-------------------------China, does your deflation hurt now?Sometimes, rates feel a little glad. What inflation? Since the US PPI fell, China’s exports increased, and yr/yr Chinese CPI dropped; does that mean China exported deflation? Short-term rates like … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 01.08.24 The Rate Trend is "Searching for It's Baby" --------------------Bulls wonder, they wonder whyBonds had to go down this way The rate trend is down, but the 10-year yield needs to correct between 4.10 and 4.25% to relieve the pressure from recent short selling by fast money. Meanwhile, dropping back below 3.90 … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 12.18.23 Mortgage Rates "Winds of Change" Give Renters Hope To Buy ----------------------We follow the rate drop and down to Reno Mark Listening to the wind - of change. Mortgages reached our target of 7% because the Fed acknowledged the need to reduce its policy restraint, and the radical climate agenda failed at … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 12.11.23 The World Says "You Spin Me Round"-------------------If Bonds get to know Joe’s game. Well, then rates will trace Jobs private number, downward. The world is upset at the US fiscal irresponsibility. Despite its recklessness, the US has relatively low rates, higher indebtedness, and remains THE reserve currency. … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 12.4.23 Recent Indicators Suggest "A New Day Has Come"----------------------------We’ve been waiting for so long, For Fed tightening to stop. Since the new bull market began in early November, long-term rates have dropped 50 bps even after modest month-end profit-taking. The bullish fundamental picture appears bright … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 11.27.23 Uncertainty's Pickett Fence of Obstacles "In the Midnight Hour" ------------------ Notes gonna wait till the midnight hour.  That's when their yields come tumbling downForeign markets and midnight meetings impact mortgage rates.  Gold tells us that uncertainty is rising from OPEC’s supply adjustments, … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 11.20.23 "Do I Wanna Know?" If There's Something on My Teeth ------------------------ Have you got color on your screens? Do you ever get that fear that you can’t shift your trade, that sticks around like something in your teeth? Illiquidity and short squeezes live.  The 10 yr yield takes a breath between 4.60 and … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 11.13.23 "Three Little Pigs" For Grown Ups! --------------- Little pig, inflation, let Fed in. Not by deflation; China sent, sent, sent. Well, Jay's huffin', He's puffin', He'll blowing housing in. Huffin', puffin', blowing housing in.TM Sound Bites is brought to you by PowerSeller, making hedging easy.China is … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 11.06.23 "Doctor My Eyes" Can't See Loan Volume Increases ------------------------ Doctor, our eyes have seen the bears. And the bad parade of rates, with bulls breaking. Now, we want loans to expand.The moment of truth came last week, which ended with a strong bull run to a new trend.  The historic levels of shorts … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.30.23 Whether Fed Tightens or Does Nothing, it will be a "Hazy Shade of Winter" ------------------------- Time, time, time.  See what's become of BEARS.  While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag.  If … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.23.23 Fed Tightening? "Baby, One More Time" --------------------------------- Oh bully bearishOh, bully, bearish, how were we supposed to knowThe bully bears had the Fed in its corner. but now Chairman Powell says the higher for longer is predicated on data.  Signs of the economy faltering will send the bears to the … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.16.23 Rewind to "1979"  ------------------------------ Khomeini 1979.  Cruel Iran always has the time.Khomeini took power in 1979 from the Shah.  Instability in the Middle East is constant.  What happens as the War against Hamas takes months?  What happens with Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighting in the north?   Will … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.09.23 Will The Terrorist War Move Bears "Down Under?" ------------------------------- Traveling in a fried-out Bear TrendOn a steeper trail makes bears like zombiesBiden enables Iran to make billions on Oil by not enforcing sanctions, which fuels inflation in the US and finances acts of hate towards Israel.  Will … [Read more...]