Show notes: TMSpotlight: 07-22-2024 Bulls Say "Welcome to Paradise" --------------------- Dear Powell, Can you hear Jobs whining? It's been three whole years since inflation felt your hold. Despite declining volatility, the new bullish trend remains solid. News continues to affirm that two rate cuts make long-term rates happier … [Read more...]
CPI Data Fuels Bond Market Optimism Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculations – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS live market update. Last week was an important week for the bond market. Even if the outright movement wasn't extreme, it was nonetheless favorable. And that was exclusively due to the consumer price index, AKA CPI. Which is the first major national inflation index that comes out on any given month and … [Read more...]
FHA 203K Reforms and Market Shifts, Hidden costs of Homeownership and Other Industry Updates!
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 07-15-2024 "Espresso" ------------------------The markets movin’ in a tight range. Isn’t that sweet? Try not to sleep. Don’t you need Espresso? Some news gives you a jolt. Then you see the screen blink red and green because it's speculating about nothing. No easing, high inflation. High easing, no growth. No liquidity. … [Read more...]
Bond Market Reactions: Independence Week Insights and Economic Data Analysis – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS live market update. Last week was an interesting one shortened by the independence day holiday, and it got off to a much weaker start for the bond market. And that was a carry over trade from the previous Friday. Itself sort of suggested to be a factor of either the presidential debate or month end trading. … [Read more...]
July Market Dynamics: Fed Rate cut, Chevron Ruling, Data Breaches and the Role of AI in Mortgages and Other Industry Updates!
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 7.08.24 Liquidity is running dry, "It’s So Lonesome it Could Cry."---------------------Hear that lonesome Repo well. It sounds too low to fly. Last week, the implied likelihood of a September Fed rate cut rose to 73%. Over a week ago, it was 62%. Bonds cry for a “higher for longer” Fed. But the fall of the dollar and … [Read more...]
Volatility and Overseas Events Shake Up the Bond Market – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS Live Market Update. Last week was an interesting one for the bond market. Not quite as high in terms of volatility as two weeks ago, when we had a CPI pushing back against the jobs report from the week before that, but things definitely began to happen and were markedly more volatile than the previous … [Read more...]
Market Movements: Analyzing the Bond Market’s Response to Economic Data – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS Live Market Update. Last week was fairly uneventful for the bond market and punctuated by Wednesday's holiday closure. The week really didn't begin in earnest until retail sales came out on Tuesday morning. The headline was only slightly weaker than expected at 0.1 versus 0.2, but the revision to the previous … [Read more...]
Profitability challenges amid NAR settlement, and the Future of Real Estate Commissions and Other Industry Updates!
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 7.1.24 Segmentation, disinflation, pro-inflation; obligation, "Ball of Confusion" ----------- People selling out, people buying in because of the color of their screens. With the Fed listening to Bonds and data, look for 30-year mortgage rates to stay below 7.75 and reach 6% by yearend while the 10-yield … [Read more...]
FHFA approval on Second Mortgage, Bond Market and Other Industry Updates!
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 06-24-2024 Affordability Remains an Obstacle and Servicing values will Drop, it's a "Ball of Confusion" ----------- People selling out, people buying in because of the color of their screens. With the Fed listening to Bonds and data, look for 30-year mortgage rates to stay below 7.75 and reach 6% by yearend … [Read more...]
CPI and PPI Reports Influence Fed’s Rate Cut Projections for 2024 – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS live market update last week was hotly anticipated, to say the least, coming off the previous week's super strong jobs report numbers and the associated bond market sell off. Traders were waiting for CPI and the fed the consumer price index to have the final say as to whether or not rates should be heading … [Read more...]
Inflation, Interest Rates, and Political Turbulence: Expert Insights on Market Trends and Other Industry Updates!
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 06-17-2024 Bond "Barracuda"------------------Bears, this is the end; Bulls rise up again - to reignThey had to take the trend away. Bond barracuda kept the Fed in line, resulting in a new bull market. Long-term, look for the 10-year yield to stay below 5% and mortgage rates below 7.75. Imagine a sub-6% 30-year … [Read more...]
Analyzing Bond Market Volatility and Key Economic Indicators Impacting Yields – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS Live Market Update. It was a wild and interesting week for the bond market last week, for a variety of reasons, lots of moving pieces, lots of back and forth, and even some counterintuitive movement. Started off on Monday, with that being the first day of the new month, that can sometimes bring in its own … [Read more...]
Volatile Bond Market Reacts to Economic Data and Treasury Auctions – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham, with the MBS Live Market Update. Last week was holiday shortened as Monday was closed for Memorial Day. Bond traders got into the office and immediately began selling bonds, making it for a very volatile start to an otherwise fairly uninspired week in terms of scheduled data and events, there were several market movers … [Read more...]
CFPB Ruling on Non-Bank Entities, Importance of Customer Service, Blockchain in Mortgage and Other Industry Updates!
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 06-10-2024 Is Data "Tutti" or "Fruiti"? ------------------------- “Little Richard, what about the data-sensitive market?” Tutti Frutti, go uppie. Tutti frutti, go downie. Tutti Frutti, go uppie. How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? About half. Yet traders keep dancing with every datum as if it changes … [Read more...]
Core CPI’s Modest Downtrend and Its Implications for the Bond Market – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS live market update last week was unequivocally all about Wednesday's CPI release, the consumer price index that has taken the place of the jobs report as the most important piece of scheduled economic data on any given month these days. And it did not disappoint in terms of the amount of market movement … [Read more...]
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