Show notes: TMSpotlight: 09-30-2024 Does "New Dawn Fade" For Fed? ------------- A change of ease, a change of spreads. A change of speed, with no regrets. Will the Fed’s New Dawn Fade with the Dollar as the perpetual reserve currency and no economic landings? That is, a stable US economy with 3% growth, 3% inflation, and no more … [Read more...]
Fed’s First Non-Emergency Rate Cut Since 2019: Impacts, Projections, and Labor Market Trends – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS live market update. Last week was an interesting one for the bond market coming off of the non-farm payrolls reading from September 6th. The bond market continued to move away from a 50bip fed rate cut in favor of a 25. And at first glance, this had a lot to do with the CPI reading that we got on Wednesday … [Read more...]
GSEs, Trigger Leads, and Tech Trends: What’s Shaping the Mortgage Industry and Other Industry Updates
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 09-23-2024 "A Day In The Life" Of Powell ------------------- Locks up, fallout is dead. Drag new locks across the hedge. The Fed’s 50 bps rate cut signals concerns about the labor market. However, Chairman Powell downplayed the likelihood of further outsized rate cuts. Mortgage rates rose in response. The era of … [Read more...]
Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty: Bond Market Reacts to CPI Data and Fed Commentary – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS live market update. Last week was an interesting one for the bond market coming off of the non-farm payrolls reading from September 6th. The bond market continued to move away from a 50bip fed rate cut in favor of a 25. And at first glance, this had a lot to do with the CPI reading that we got on Wednesday … [Read more...]
Market Movers and Mortgage Tech: Navigating Regulatory Changes and Emerging AI Innovations and Other Industry Updates
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 09-16-2024 "Wooden Ships" Calm Seas, Prepare for Unexpected ------------------------ Wooden Ships above the oil, barely free. Easy, Bonds know the way it’s supposed to be. Gold rose sharply above 2600, an all-time high, in fear of a broader war. The US and NATO signaled they will arm Ukraine with long-range missiles. … [Read more...]
Bond Market Volatility and the Fed’s Rate Cut Dilemma: Key Economic Data and Forecasts – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS Live Market Update. Last week was an exciting one for the bond market and the mortgage market with several big-ticket economic reports and a generally high level of volume and volatility. This began right out of the gate on Tuesday. It was a holiday shortened week due to the Labor Day weekend and some of the … [Read more...]
Sub-6% Mortgage Rates, Realtor Disclosures, Election Impact On Mortgage and Other Industry Updates
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 09-09-2024 Jobs are the "Rock Brigade"-----------------------Jobs are bangin' on their drums, bangin' on Bonds’ door, wavin' their flags, tellin' Bonds to score. Watch out for the Rock Brigade. On the eve of Fed easing, inversion ended between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury Notes as Job weakness gained momentum. Flash … [Read more...]
From Advocacy to Action: How Mortgage Leaders Use Social Media to Shape the Industry – A Labor Day Special with Greg Sher
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 09-02-2024 "Pour Some Sugar on Me," It Relieves Boredom----------------------Pour Some Sugar On Three. Two, escape inversion. Pour some sugar on One. Come on, hit zero. The countdown to the end of inversion goes through mechanical boredom despite anxiety by market participants. The dynamic tension coexists within … [Read more...]
Trigger Lead Bill, Growing Role of AI in Mortgage Lending, Bond Markets Prediction and Other Industry Updates
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 08.26.2024 "The Weight" Takes Time--------------------------Take a load to Fannie. Take a lock for free. Ship The Weight to Ginnie. Our target of a sub-6% mortgage is 50 bps away. Softening Jobs and receding inflation expectations give credence to the FOMC minutes and Powell's speech, signaling a September ease. Market … [Read more...]
New Buyer Agent Commission and Realtor Challenges, Jackson Hole Symposium, Shrinking TP sizes And Other Industry Updates
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 08-19-2024 Lags Happen, So "Knockin' On Heavens Door"---------------------------Job’s long black cloud is comin' down. Bulls are Knockin' On Rally's Door. Will recession odds rise faster than falling inflation expectations? The bond market expects the Fed will ease multiple times before Dec 31. Yet, uncertainty abounds … [Read more...]
Bond Market Milestones: Analyzing the Uninversion of the Yield Curve and Upcoming Inflation Data – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS live market update. The last two weeks have been extraordinarily eventful for the bond market with a few bigger picture milestones being taken out. The most significant of those occurred on Monday morning with the uninversion of the yield curve for the first time since it inverted. About two years ago, … [Read more...]
ROV policy, Data and Cybersecurity, Bond Yield Curve And Other Industry Updates
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 08-12-2024 "Always Crashing in the Same Car" Into The Bear Wall --------------------- The market’s going ’round and ’round the DATA garage Must have been getting close to 3.44. The struggling Dollar and Gold’s sustained bullishness point to calamity ahead. Meanwhile, Crude Oil and Bonds do not expect WW3 within the … [Read more...]
Calm Week for Bonds Amid Rate Cut Speculation and Upcoming Economic Data” – Market Update by Matt Graham
[Matt] This is Matt Graham with the MBS Live Market Update. Last week was less eventful than the week before. When it came to bond market volatility and interesting developments that impacted the bond market. In fact, there really weren't any developments that overtly impacted the bond market if we were looking for big ticket items on the … [Read more...]
CFPB RFI on Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Bond and Market Rates And Other Industry Updates
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 08-05-2024 Mortgage Rates "Take It Easy" ------------------------- Fed is loose, and we will win Though let us never go back againSo open up, Loans climbin' inSo take it easyIn May when mortgage rates were 7.25, you heard me on Lykken On Lending say that mortgage rates would drop significantly before the end of … [Read more...]
NMLS Fee Increase, Fed Rate Cut, Tech Fraud Prevention and Other Industry Updates!
Show notes: TMSpotlight: 07-29-2024 Stop Fretting and "Walk" ----------------------- Lenders remember the days.They built these paper mountains.Then sat and watched them burn.Data come and go that drive MBS prices up and down. With the worsening economic conditions in Europe and soft US Housing, the curve twists and turns. Lenders lost a lot … [Read more...]
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