Lykken on Lending

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.30.23 Whether Fed Tightens or Does Nothing, it will be a "Hazy Shade of Winter" ------------------------- Time, time, time.  See what's become of BEARS.  While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag.  If … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.23.23 Fed Tightening? "Baby, One More Time" --------------------------------- Oh bully bearishOh, bully, bearish, how were we supposed to knowThe bully bears had the Fed in its corner. but now Chairman Powell says the higher for longer is predicated on data.  Signs of the economy faltering will send the bears to the … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.16.23 Rewind to "1979"  ------------------------------ Khomeini 1979.  Cruel Iran always has the time.Khomeini took power in 1979 from the Shah.  Instability in the Middle East is constant.  What happens as the War against Hamas takes months?  What happens with Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighting in the north?   Will … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.09.23 Will The Terrorist War Move Bears "Down Under?" ------------------------------- Traveling in a fried-out Bear TrendOn a steeper trail makes bears like zombiesBiden enables Iran to make billions on Oil by not enforcing sanctions, which fuels inflation in the US and finances acts of hate towards Israel.  Will … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 10.02.23 Speed and Curves Often Cause A "Crash"  --------------------------- Steepening goes too fast.  So MBS’ gonna Crash.Higher rates in the long end than the short end annoyed mortgages.  Prices fell, and coupon stack decompressed, confusing everyone from borrowers to hedgers with speeds and curves.Will last … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 9.18.23 Bonds are "Looking Through You" ----------------------- Fed’s not the same.Fed’s lips are moving.  Bonds cannot hear. Jay’s voice is hounding markets with one of these days markets POW to the moon.  The Fed wants the long end to not jump the gun while it jumps the shark.It threatens another tightening … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 9.11.23 Will There Be Crowing or "Dancing in the Moonlight"? -------------------------- Every trader here is out of sight.  They will scalp, and they will bite.  They keep things loose, Fed keeps things tight.  Everybody was Dancin' in the Job’s light. The Bond bulls and bears dance to new news.  What unexpected data … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 9.4.23 Decelerating US Economy, "War Pigs" Want Mayhem! ------------------------- Yield curve’s short end hides itself away.  Fed only started the war.Despite the bearish trend, the Fed is stuck with one more tightening, if they dare.  The Bond Bears move with no momentum or conviction.Each round of data adds more … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 8.28.23 "I Saw The Sign" It Was High Tech ---------------------- Bonds saw The Sign, and it opened up their eyes.  They saw The Sign.  Bears are demanding without understanding.Another week brings another attack on recent high yields but with no breakthrough above the pre-financial crisis resistance of 4.40 to … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 8.21.23 "Rainy Day Women" Who is Getting Stoned Now? ------------------------Data stone you when you’re tryin' to lock a loan. Then data stone you when keeping all your loans. But you would not feel so all alone. Everybody will get stoned. The Bond Bears reign. How can they take mortgage rates to 8%? They throw stones. … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 8.14.23 How's Your Appetite? "Eat the Rich" ----------------------------- Well, rates moved up last morningOn the wrong side of the tradeAnd now Bonds got to thinkin'About all those things Jay saidAbout rich MBS tradesAnd how they make apps sick.In Japan and Europe, inflation eased, tanking the Dollar and sinking Oil.  … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 8.07.23 "On Melancholy Hill" May Lower Mortgage Rates ------------------------------ Up on Melancholy Hill, There's a data tree.  Are they here for bears or bulls?The curve believes that the Fed’s restrictive policy will constrain growth and choke off inflation.  Interpreted data drive rates and yield spreads.As a … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 7.31.23 "Yogi Bear" Oops Boo Boo ---------------------- Chairman Powell is smarter than the average bear;Chairman Powell is always in the trader's hair.At the Banker’s Table, you will find him there,Stuffing down more data than the average bear.What happens to rates for the rest of the year?  The Fed has set up the … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 7.24.23 Opposing Traffic Causes "Space Truckin" Congestion -------------------------- Well, we had a lot of luck with Bull TrendsWe always had a ball with Bears.We’re trading all the crazy curves.  Is the Fed sending us to the MURKY Way.   Recently two-way mechanical trading reduced the price market-makers charge to … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 7.17.23 "Tom Sawyer" Will the 10 Yr Yield Be Adventure or Mishap? ---------------------------- Inflation warriorMean, old hawk.Today's Tom Sawyer Mean, new doveAre aggressive hikes gone?  Last week, the market presumed Doves won as hawkish Jim Bullard resigned as St. Louis Fed President to lead Purdue’s School of … [Read more...]