Lykken on Lending

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 06-24-2024 Affordability Remains an Obstacle and Servicing values will Drop, it's a "Ball of Confusion" ----------- People selling out, people buying in because of the color of their screens. With the Fed listening to Bonds and data, look for 30-year mortgage rates to stay below 7.75 and reach 6% by yearend … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 06-17-2024 Bond "Barracuda"------------------Bears, this is the end; Bulls rise up again - to reignThey had to take the trend away. Bond barracuda kept the Fed in line, resulting in a new bull market. Long-term, look for the 10-year yield to stay below 5% and mortgage rates below 7.75. Imagine a sub-6% 30-year … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 06-10-2024 Is Data "Tutti" or "Fruiti"? ------------------------- “Little Richard, what about the data-sensitive market?” Tutti Frutti, go uppie. Tutti frutti, go downie. Tutti Frutti, go uppie. How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?  About half.  Yet traders keep dancing with every datum as if it changes … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 06-03-2024 "Suite: Judy Blue Eyes" Hesitation, Higher Yields, or More Interest. Hard Choices.--------------------------It's getting to the point, Jay is no fun anymore. He is sorry. Recent Treasury auctions show investor hesitation to buy. Do they expect higher yields? The low appetite, coupled with the … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 05-27-2024 The Fed Leaves US "Right Where You Left Me"----------------Links break up, links get married. Cycles get born, cycles get buried. Trends change, rumors fly through new lies, (with-TS only) Screens Right Where You Left them. The Fed minutes underscored its “higher for longer” outlook, resulting in a … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 05-20-2024 Countries In Recession Won't Be "Lonely Boy"-------------------------Any old report keeps us waiting. Waiting, waiting. Powell’s a Lonely Boy, He’s a Lonely Boy. Oh, Powell, you are the love that keeps us waiting. The latest tame inflation dropped rates. Many expected a strong report that would have pushed … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 05-13-2024 "High Hopes" Or Decay For the Long Haul-----------------------At a higher altitude, QT unfurled. Bulls reached the High Hopes of that dreamed-of world. Steps taken forward, Bears sleepwalking back again. Dragged by the force of Fed Powell’s higher-for-longer tide. The perpetual auctions continue to find … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 05-06-2024 Bad Data is "Criminal"---------------------The data hustle, they’re no good at all. Moves like a loser, they are mixed, up, down, done. Dripping Oil, softening Gold, and cooling Copper lifted the short-end’s hope that the Fed will ease this year. Friday’s Jobs report helped. Additionally, the Fed’s … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 04-29-2024 The Bears Ask, "Have You Ever Seen The Rain?" ----------------------------- Parker told us long ago There's a calm before the stormHe knows Last week, stagflation appeared in the GDP data, with slowing growth and rising inflation.  As a result, the 10-year yield hit our bear target of 4.71.Jimmy … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 04-22-2024 Rattle Rates and Do "The Twist" ---------------------------- Come on, Jay Powell. Let's do the twist.Come on, Yellen. Let's do the twist. Data continue to confound the Fed and Treasury. Easy money and free-spending lead to the pain of persistent inflation. Now, tight money constraints growth and hastens … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 04.08.2024 Rates and the Sun Are Having a "Total Eclipse of the Heart"----------------------------(Turn around, Bear lines)Every now and then rates fall apart(Turn around, Bear lines) The US faces a sign in the shadow. Sharp rates, strong jobs, stubborn inflation, Surging Gold, Scorching Oil, and a solid Dollar collide … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 4.3.24 "We Will Rock You" It's Another Gold BRIC in the Wall ------------------------ BRICS want a race. Chasing Bucks Can all over the place, //  Queen only //singin'. We will, we will rock you. We will, we will rock you. Gold hit record highs as China and other BRICS continued their buying spree. So, why … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 03.25.24 "Times Like These" Make You Look At Your Options---------------------Jay’s on a one-way motorway He’s an ease that drives away, then loosens sales back home. The Fed remains on the road to reducing monetary constraints, whether through lower rates or fewer sales of Treasuries. What bites harder, a recession, … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 3.18.24 Inflation Has the "Folsom Prison Blues" ---------------------Hello, I’m Jerome Cash I hear inflation comin', it's rolling round the bend.And I ain't seen it tumblin’ since I don't know when.I’m stuck in Biden’s Prison, inflation draggin' on. Biden pushes on demand with old-fashioned Democrat economic policies … [Read more...]

Show notes: TMSpotlight: 3-11-24 "We Will Rock You" It's Another Gold BRIC in the Wall------------------------BRICS want a race. Chasing Bucks Can all over the place, // Queen only //singin'. We will, we will rock you. We will, we will rock you. Gold hit record highs as China and other BRICS continued their buying spree. So, why hoard Gold? … [Read more...]