[David] Hey, good job Matt Graham. Be sure to sign up for Matt Graham’s service. Many of you have already. I can’t tell you the feedback I get on this service. I love it. It sits behind me. If you’re looking at the video you see it sits here all the time behind me. It is just such an important service, especially when you see things going on. You gotta whip back there and I look at my screens all the time to see what’s going on. Matt Graham, thank you so much. Be sure to sign up for MBS live.net. You can get the UpToDate nanoseconds, the updates down in as much as nanoseconds current. Anyways, I’ll use LOL to sign up for an extended trial period. Matt Graham, thank you so much. Let’s get into it. Bill Corbett, lots of inflationary worries. Oil, and what’s really interesting in this is that, people’s, we’ve been up at 16 days, 17 days when we air this podcast. We’re just into this and we’re kicking their royal butts. And what’s so amazing is the pressure that comes on political as it is, there’s a worry about this. When are we gonna get this over rather than dealing with the large, longer positive outcome of not having that government in place. And so a lot of changes. Venezuela, this now Cuba, there’s lots of things changing out there, but the inflationary concerns are jacking with the mortgage rates. Your thoughts.
[Bill] So I guess I’ll start off with a pretty telling thought, which is FOMC meeting this week wasn’t even on my radar screen, right? There is nothing that they are going to say or do Yeah. That is gonna have any meaning whatsoever because they’re gonna be scripting what they’re saying. Minutes before, because it’s all gonna be we have no idea what oil is gonna do, what inflation’s gonna do, what economic growth is gonna do until somebody shows us what the Middle East is gonna look like thirty, sixty, ninety, a hundred twenty days from now. So I’m like, I’m pretty geekish, right? I usually make sure I hit the press conference live. I’m not sure I care. I know. ’cause that’s not where the answer’s gonna be now. and I’ll get to your other key point in a second, but, I’m sorry I grew up in the seventies, i’m not as old as you and Mark, but. I was driving and trying to get to a summer job in 79 and dealing with the odd even. Yeah. Getting gas odd even days the, when you can fill up your gas. Yep. Yes. We had to stick on numbers. Threes became eight pretty easily, but to not have an absolutely concrete plan to deal with the straight of hormones To me, there are two incredible, my opinion failures going on right now. One is not having a plan to deal with the straight or four moves and frankly that’s a worldwide problem. That’s not just a US problem and not to have replenished the strategic petroleum reserve, over the last year. I know. No. If you’re Trump, this was going to happen somewhere in your four year term. Those are two massive failures. But I also completely agree with your other point of, and especially as it relates to the mortgage business, right? Because people are, they listen to less, they listen to Matt to deal with what’s going on now with rates. What do I tell my customers? What do I do with loans in the pipeline? If anybody thinks that they have an idea where interest rates are gonna be in a, pipeline life cycle, 30 to 60 day timeframe, they’re totally delusional.
[David] Yeah. And I like that term, pipelines in a pipeline cycle because that’s what you have to look at as it is it, that is really the proper Timeframe we should be looking at what’s your pipeline cycle and what should be doing, which comes back to what we saw every week. Focus on production. Yeah. Get it locked, get it done, get it closed. There’s another opportunity if we have a nice rally. And I do believe I’m of the opinion, it’s just like a nose. We all have one, I have an opinion. I think we’re gonna see low sub 6% mortgage rates, 30 year mortgage rates. I really do. I think, I certainly don’t have the qualifications of Les Parker to make that comment, but it’s a gut. There just seems to be a general optimism out there. All right. Mr. Kittle your thoughts and we get over to Alice Mark and then Alan Kittle. What Bill said. You’re just ding what Bill said. He does. He’s pretty articulate. Yeah.
[Kittle] It’s a swing and a miss, clearly for the straight of horror moves. But and it is a global problem. But don’t sell Trump short on this. No, absolutely not that. A plan that they didn’t have is probably in place today. Remember he’s great at having you focus over here. Yep. He’s working over here. Yep. And we all said
[David] Watch the hand. Watch the hand. Powell.
[Kittle] Yeah. He plays chess. Everybody else plays checkers. Yep. And I think you’ll see something done in the straight, it’s a gut very quickly.
[David] Yeah. I was watching, yeah. I was watching some videos over the weekend. The technology we have for cleaning out the, even if it was mine. Totally. And for cleaning out the straits of her muse. It’s really sophisticated. And now they could clean that thing out.
[Kittle] So they gotta take the island. Yeah, they gotta take it. We gotta take it. Yep. Nobody wants boots on the ground, you send the Delta Force Marines or whatever it is, you take that Yep. And then you start moving the other way. And as long as they right now, nobody else I just watched Trump before we came on the podcast and he’s holding a board meeting on the Trump Kennedy Plaza remodel. And he said there are countries out there that are willing to assist. He wouldn’t name them because he doesn’t want to get them attacked. Risk that are willing to put their ships out there and escort the tankers. He’ll get this done. But look, yeah. Refi’s over right now. Don’t worry about it. Go do loans and do some purchase,
[David] Go do loans. But there’s purchase. The purchase volume is still going on there. We’re into a new spring season because of what’s going on in Venezuela around Cuba. There is a general sense of. Encouragement or optimism for the long-term picture. And so I think more and more people are stirring up saying, Hey, before this really same market takes off again, we should jump in. We’re looking at prices that have been depressed. Many parts of the country because of interest rates, certainly here in Texas, man, oh man, we’ve been hit hard. And so I’ve got a house that’s been on the market now a year dropping the price, a hundred thousand dollars. I can’t get anyone to even come and take a look at it. It’s just because of where that is. Because of certain of these market conditions. So it’s regional. It’s gonna be picking back up. And so anyway, Alice, love to get your thoughts. You always have. Cogent thoughts.
[Alice] I’m gonna go back to what Bill was saying. And so if you think about what he said, it means nobody has an advantage over you, right? Sometimes as a loan officer or small company, great, that’s a great, in particular, you’re going, gosh, do I have all the information? Or these big shops have all this technology to try and be ahead of me on the markets or be ahead of me on the interest rate game and with this much turmoil in the markets that make it, as Bill said it and David, so completely unpredictable, then no matter what size shop you are, and lo anywhere you are, if you’re the one who goes, I never listen to the news anyway, guess what? You’re okay. You are just as competitive right now as the people who are living it every day trying to figure that’s right out what’s gonna happen next. So as is it, go out and originate and keep doing what you’re doing.
[David] For sure. Marc, you’re, you’ve been a veteran, you’re like, I have been front of this industry for many decades, so five decades. So your thoughts
[Marc] I think the way I feel right now is you don’t remember the old book saying The best of times and the worst of times. Yeah. Sometimes we do better In the worst of Times. Tale Two. Tale of Two Cities. Yep. Yeah. And I think maybe this is the worst of times right now. We don’t have that stability in market that we’re used to, but what that’s gonna mean, people are gonna do incredible things to make their company survive. And I could see some margins loosening up, that we’re, yeah, somebody’s gonna say, I don’t have to have this kind of spread to close a loan. I need to do this. I need to grow because you’re not, David, the story you said about your house is one I hear all the time and I hear it all the time from people. ‘Cause I know I’m in the mortgage area and people are having a hard time moving their houses right now. And besides. Moving that there’s a whole bunch of ’em out there that can’t even take their houses to the market. ’cause they know that it is not gonna have any luck on it. I think we’re gonna see some shifting going around, but I do think that it’s gonna cause companies to tighten their belts, get very competitive, carve off excess charges and try to survive. And when doing that, we’re gonna see some benefit for the consumer.
[David] Yep. I agree with you. Agree with you on that. Alan, any opinions you have on thoughts on that?
[Allen] So one thing I’ve noticed, and I live in a hotbed market. I live right here in North Florida. The play the TPC players is in my neighborhood. Just ended by the way, yesterday, cam Young was the winner. It’s what’s interesting is that where I live, the values are still going up. They’re still bidding on multiple offers on homes. But I’m also noticing homes that. Like there, there’s a home. It’s a beautiful house, and the inside’s done well, but the house is painted in a opaque pink and nobody’s buying it, but the house two houses down, people are people bought. So I think it’s not like people are just fighting to take homes, but on the right house, the values here in North Florida are still going up and people are still buying, and Helms are not sitting on the market that long in most cases. My dad also is looking to move into a 55 and older community. It’s got the pool and the beautiful gyms and they do sausage making on Tuesday nights, all that fun stuff. And they, yeah, they do Mahjong on Wednesdays and sausage making on Tuesdays and cigar rolling on Fridays, by the way. But anyways. Okay. I’m getting off track here. The point is those values are also up and they’re selling quickly. They’re on the market just for a few days. Yeah, so I, think it’s based on how everything’s positioned and how people are thinking. I know the whole country, not like North Florida, completely understand that, but he is also selling his house in Jersey, and the realtor told them, you’re gonna sell it extremely fast because there’s not a lot on the market. So when it does come on, people are just ready and they want something. So if it’s priced right, they’ll take it. So I think some of it is anxiety, David, and I think the other end of it is we have and I hope no realtors listening get upset with me, but we’ve got people that are telling people the wrong thing. They’re saying, oh, you got, the value right now is at one, one and a quarter million or 800,000, you gotta list at nine because you’re, you’re gonna have to come down and we’re artificially inflating the market and then the house sits there for longer. Also, the, we can’t fix the problem. I’m not saying we can, I just think that the market is doing great. The market is people are buying and selling homes, that it’s always in those ebbs and flows. And I think right now we’ve got amazing tools at our hands. We’ve got, you can take a deal without PII data, throw it into any AI model and come up with a sales pitch and a way to help a borrower understand different ways to afford different options. And then you’ve got the personalization of, because you’re not dealing with so many deals as an lo, you’re dealing with a few deals. You should be calling and handholding these borrowers all the way through to give ’em the best experience. Redder, which RETR, they just came out with their weekly survey. They’re showing, yes, I saw it. An immense amount of borrowers. When I say immense, these numbers should be five, 10%. We’re talking like way over 30, 40% of borrowers that are not sticking with their original lender. That means we’re not doing a good job, folks. And if people are staying in their homes, an average of seven years or less, why isn’t that business being retained? So I just leave it at that. What I’m trying to say, David, in the end is I agree with everybody and I think the market is doing great. And I think it’s a matter of your mindset being positive, portrays your borrowers and your friends and your partners, that it’s a positive world and we should all be doing great and wonderful together. Maybe I’m just too positive ’cause I had two coffees. That’s true.
[David] Good thoughts though, actually, good reflection on it. I and you’re right, I don’t have a pink house, but all the master bed, the master bedroom’s upstairs with all the other bedrooms and everyone wants a master bedroom downstairs. Right now. We wanted it upstairs ’cause we’re raising our kids. So we we’ll find the right family, they’ll buy it and it’ll be gone, but it sure taking a lot longer. So anyway. Good stuff. COVID
[Allen] For you. Pardon for you, David. I hope you sell it, ’cause Houston is where that house is located, right? Yeah. No, it’s, I hope you sell it before the 110 degree temperatures hit.
[David] Yes. Yes. I know we, we’ve got a little temperature issue here down here in Texas. Although it’s not today, man. It’s 39 degrees this morning. We got a lot of good stuff. Comments on the markets folks. The most important thing is I encourage you to just be focused in on getting business happening. Pipelines are the best levels. Every one of my clients, and I do a lot of consulting and a lot of clients across the country, every one of ’em are reporting a hundred percent of reporting best. Pipeline ever in months and years that they’re going through their shop right now. So it’s happening. So keep that positive message happening. Wanna give a shout out to one of my clients? Wes, click Lee over at Pilgrim Mortgage invited me to come speak at their Cancun sales awards bank trip. So I’m gonna be going down and spending some time in Cancun here in the first week of April. Not bad, get away outta cold.