[David] That is a good report. Thank you so much from both Les and Matt. Let’s get into a discussion starting off with you, Bill.
[Bill] So I’m going to be the pessimist. So the first thing is CPI comes out tomorrow. The expectation of headline CPI is .6%. Yep. I see that just, take that and consider it, right? And then you get the core CPI, ’cause they exclude food and energy, right? That’s still expected to be up .4%. I tend to go with momentum, and I think there’s still a lot of uncertainty before the war in the Persian Gulf sorts itself out. I feel like one of the big things to watch, and it’s been talked about a lot, is Iran’s oil storage capability. Yes. But I also feel like the the topping out as it’s called, that date seems to be perpetually two to three weeks away. Yep. I’ve noticed that too. When they start saying that it’s imminent, then start talking to me about a serious peace proposal on the table. I think it’s gonna drag on in, this kinda in-between state for a while. And we’re, in the U.S. We’re still pretty insulated from the direct effects- Yeah … but they’re hitting throughout the rest of the world. And the direct effects meaning it’s no longer how much you’re willing to pay, it’s can you get, whether it’s oil, fertilizer, chemicals. It’s still a massive deal and it’s also one of those once everybody agrees that the Straits of Hormuz are open it’s still gonna take a long time to sort it out. And, one of the other things I found fascinating, there was a story about this. Inshore route along the coast of Oman that a lot of people are banking on. And I read something where they walked through the mechanics of how you get a supertanker through there. It ain’t easy.
[David] No. There’s a lot of dynamics at play here the full extent of which none of us, other than maybe the military, understands. but your pessimism is well-supported by others out there. So let’s talk to another pessimist, Mr. Kittle. I thought I saw you going. You’re an optimist, I know you, but I’m saying you were… looked like you were being pessimistic when you… By the way, you’re muted, David.
[Kittle] I’m not a pessimist at all. I would say I don’t know exactly when Les does his report, but I’m pretty sure that it was before everything had happened this weekend and- Yeah his proposal and the rejection. At this point, there’s no deal. I’ll say it again probably for the fifth time. Trump really doesn’t want to kill anybody else, but if you back him in a corner, he’ll perform. All the deals off the table. I don’t think he’s gonna make a decision till he gets back from China, where he’s going in the next week or so. He meets with Xi. They have a very lot to say about it because they’re under great pressure because they need Iranian oil, period. So if you look at the markets today, oil’s up 5%, the 10-year is at 440, stocks are flat, maybe up four points. We’ve got a new Fed chair that’s probably a, absolutely a done deal. If you look just in the, on the mortgage side of this instead of just talking about the political side of it and take it from a TMC point of view, we have a lot of preferred partners, vendors really wanting to join and are joining the Mortgage Collective. Our registrations for upcoming conference are strong and off the charts. We have positivity throughout the ranks inside TMC as far as originations go, right? So it’s almost if all of them were listening to this podcast is all the time we talk about you can’t worry about rate, you just gotta go do loans. Yeah. And there is business out there. Business is fine, and that was a great jobs report this last-
[David] It was a really good jobs report. Exactly. Much stronger. And, a- and not only that, the revision for the previous m- month.
[Kittle] And when you talk about the labor participation rate is up that’s great. You want it to be. You want more people in the labor market because we had false labor participation rate under the Biden administration for four years, right? Everything was pushed down. So you want a real gauge of the people that need to be looking for work, more people off welfare- and in the labor market to create the jobs. That gives you an absolutely better accurate picture of what’s going on out there. I’m pessimistic in the short term. There’s no deal. I’ll close with this. It doesn’t how, mean how, matter how strong you are militarily, you can’t defeat an ideology with the military. These, it is incredible-
[David] But you can do it economically though. theoretically You can do it economic- Theoretically … that, that’s the, he’s w- he’s waging the right war by doing it economically.
[Kittle] That’s right. That’s why he pulled back on the bombings and everything else. Yeah. But if he has to go in with the bombs and everything else to get- Yeah, he’ll do it … uranium, he’ll do it. But he won’t do it till after he gets back from China, ’cause he was gonna meet face-to-face with him and tell Xi this is what’s gonna happen. That’s my prediction.
[David] Yep, good prediction as well. Marc, any thoughts on this?
[Marc] Yeah, I got thoughts on it and they center and go the same way that Mr. Kettal was. I think he’s exactly right about the China meetings, and I think things will push Trump in a corner and he’s gonna act on it. But, the one thing that Trump talked about doing that I think would make a difference is if he’d have blown up the bridges, and some things like that to really hurt their infrastructure. They would’ve felt it more and moving it, but we never got that far along on it. But, we’ve been seeing this stuff for like ever since World War II. There’s always been a crisis going on somewhere and coming to the thing, and none of them ever turn out the way we want them, and they affect our economy. What gets me is why do these things have such an effect on our economy when it’s all unknowns we’re dealing with, and they all run a cycle, and then they go away and it’s everything back to normal? Not always, but high percentage- 90 plus … nine plus of it. Yeah. And all we do is spin our wheels and screw everything up in the country because we’re trying to pay attention to crap we don’t have any control over. It better all, we just pay attention to running our government and doing things the right way and not be concerned about these. I do realize this one is more traumatic ’cause it’s affecting the oil and then thus- Yeah … the gas prices and all that stuff, though, though true, but at the same time, that’s one thing. But to turn our whole economy up in a, upside down over that when we think all think, all of us on the §phone think one way or another it’s gonna be relatively short-term. So there’s a solution out there and it’s in sight, and it’s probably gonna be handed out some time in the foreseeable future in the next 60 days probably, at least and so why are we sweating all the small stuff and ripping everything up that we do in our country? I just don’t get it. We do this so often, it makes me just wanna go throw up. That’s my opinion. All right.
[David] Good. Alice, your thoughts?
[Alice] I was busy taking a whole lot of notes. Because I’m fascinated- You’re a smart girl as you are. There’s a lot being said here … somebody’s gotta be the stenographer around here. But no, I love what all of you said. I think the hard part, I guess I’ll be that voice of, we hope it will be short-term. But everything you’re saying, let’s wait till after China, and then, there’s so many other factors that are… the news just gets splintered, right? Okay, don’t pay attention to Iran right now. Pay attention to these other five things that are now hitting the news day after day. And so that’s what makes me feel a little bit like this could drag on longer than we want because just as people trying to pay attention to the news, there’s so much to pay attention to. You have to pick your battles. And so the government is gonna move the way it needs to, tw- and Trump will certainly do what he needs to do and what he feels is right to do with Iran. But there’s a whole lot of other stuff going on that I think could cause- it’s a- … this to drag out longer than we think.
[David] Yeah, that’s an understatement. There is a whole lot more going on than we ever dream about this.
[Alice] You remember the guy on the Ed Sullivan Show who had all the plates spinning? Yes. Yeah. That’s… Those guys that do the- and most people listening to this are too young to remember. He had all the poles, and he had plates, and he would just run around like- Spinning on every one of his- Spinning a plate- yeah, he ran around the- … trying to keep all the plates from falling, and- Yeah. Yeah … I feel like that’s where we’re at right-
[Marc] Alice, you do know that was AI, right? Oh. Somebody’s gonna repeat it- Yeah, and, … with AI now, but that was real back then, Marc. We know. The video was real. I saw it as a kid. Yeah. Didn’t have the…
[David] Yeah, I think you’re right, Bill, when you were talking about the pessimism that’s in our expectations of it. And define a when in in a soon timeframe. Soon is one of those very, very squishy words in this situation. I think what is encouraging is what Kittel reported on, and that is there is general optimism, and there is o- there is a sense that this is gonna get done, and they’re looking at the facts with what happened in Venezuela, what happened now in Iran, what the ripple effect that could have on Ukraine, how that could also impact China. There’s a lot of things that move very quickly towards supporting a very strong US economy when this does tip over into the, I think, an eventual conclusion that what is what everyone’s anticipating. Therefore, everyone’s moving ahead of it. Markets and people move ahead of that. Mr. Kittel, last thought?
[Kittle] If we wanna put a target on it, we say soon. Soon would be, by the end of summer if you get it done, if you just think of it in that term. How long will it take once Trump decides to go back in and get the uranium and maybe blow up the bridges or whatever? ‘Cause he strangled them as, as much as he can economically at this point. So that’s what it’s gonna take. So we’ve been given, with this proposal from Iran over the weekend, the middle finger on the uranium. And so there you have it. It’s no. They lie about everything, the Iranians, and so they can keep th- it’s just I wouldn’t have put up with it this long, but- Exactly.
[David] Yeah. Got a lot of thoughts I could add to that, but we’ll leave it at that. For this discussion, go out and originate loans. Buyers are starting to show up. It’s the spring buying season. Get back to writing loans, which most of you that are listening to this podcast are doing successfully, so way to go.