Lykken on Lending

----------------------- 08-21-2023 "Rainy Day Women" Who is Getting Stoned Now? Data stone you when you’re tryin' to lock a loan.  Then data stone you when keeping all your loans.  But you would not feel so all alone.  Everybody will get stoned. The Bond Bears reign.  How can they take mortgage rates to 8%?  They throw stones.  They cast … [Read more...]

----------------------- Well, rates moved up last morningOn the wrong side of the tradeAnd now Bonds got to thinkin'About all those things Jay saidAbout rich MBS tradesAnd how they make apps sick.In Japan and Europe, inflation eased, tanking the Dollar and sinking Oil.  But, the bearish US news caused rates to rise amid erratic price … [Read more...]

----------------------- Up on Melancholy Hill, There's a data tree.  Are they here for bears or bulls? The curve believes that the Fed’s restrictive policy will constrain growth and choke off inflation.  Interpreted data drive rates and yield spreads.As a result, Friday’s Job report gives the Bulls a reason to reverse the bear trend this … [Read more...]

----------------------- Chairman Powell is smarter than the average bear;Chairman Powell is always in the trader's hair.At the Banker’s Table, you will find him there,Stuffing down more data than the average bear.What happens to rates for the rest of the year?  The Fed has set up the markets for disruptive moves based on data.  If so, then which … [Read more...]

----------------------- Well, we had a lot of luck with Bull Trends We always had a ball with Bears.We’re trading all the crazy curves.  Is the Fed sending us to the MURKY Way. Recently two-way mechanical trading reduced the price market-makers charge to hedge, which brought order to mortgage pricing.  Global economic and … [Read more...]

 ----------------------- 7.17.23 "Tom Sawyer" Will the 10 Yr Yield Be Adventure or Mishap? Inflation warriorMean, old hawk.Today's Tom Sawyer Mean, new doveAre aggressive hikes gone?  Last week, the market presumed Doves won as hawkish Jim Bullard resigned as St. Louis Fed President to lead Purdue’s School of Business.  Buyers buy … [Read more...]

----------------------- 7.10.23 Will the Economy "Rock & Roll" Into a Slowdown Uh, Uh, Flush Flush Ah. Finally, the bears reached our 10 yr yield target of 4.10.  The bears ended the secular bull market in 2022, and all bull comebacks crashed.  With many central banks tightening over 400 basis points in less than a year, when will the … [Read more...]

----------------------- 7.3.23 Supreme Court Indicates Not Everything is "Black & White" -------------------- The ink is black. The page is white. The court tells us to see no race.With the Supreme Court telling universities to value the individual, let’s hope the DEI activists see their folly and return to Color-blindness, Merit, Equal … [Read more...]

  ----------------------- Get Ready for ShocksHints of stimulus in China caused Oil producing states to cut production and prepare for a global slump.  As a result, the 10 yr yield slipped from 3.80. Get Ready for Lulls       Near-term markets struggle with views on yield curves, currencies, and recessions resulting in erratic range … [Read more...]