----------------------- Bulls wonder, they wonder why Bonds had to go down this way The rate trend is down, but the 10-year yield needs to correct between 4.10 and 4.25% to relieve the pressure from recent short selling by fast money. Meanwhile, dropping back below 3.90 invigorates the bulls. Fundamentals remain mixed. Will ships avoiding the … [Read more...]
12.18.23 Mortgage Rates “Winds of Change” Give Renters Hope To Buy
----------------------- We follow the rate drop and down to Reno Mark Listening to the wind - of change. Mortgages reached our target of 7% because the Fed acknowledged the need to reduce its policy restraint, and the radical climate agenda failed at COP28. Near term, without any fresh data to feed the feeding frenzy, look for a … [Read more...]
12-11-23 The World Says “You Spin Me Round”
----------------------- If Bonds get to know Joe’s game. Well, then rates will trace Jobs private number, downward. The world is upset at the US fiscal irresponsibility. Despite its recklessness, the US has relatively low rates, higher indebtedness, and remains THE reserve currency. So, the global resentment of the US, makes sense. They … [Read more...]
12-04-23 Recent Indicators Suggest “A New Day Has Come”
----------------------- We’ve been waiting for so long, For Fed tightening to stop. Since the new bull market began in early November, long-term rates have dropped 50 bps even after modest month-end profit-taking. The bullish fundamental picture appears bright with: Economic weakening in China, Deflating prices in Europe, Softening US … [Read more...]
11-27-23 Uncertainty’s Pickett Fence of Obstacles “In the Midnight Hour”
----------------------- Notes gonna wait till the midnight hour. That's when their yields come tumbling down Foreign markets and midnight meetings impact mortgage rates. Gold tells us that uncertainty is rising from OPEC’s supply adjustments, China’s exporting of deflation, Japan’s attempt to exit model land for real prices and rates, and … [Read more...]
11-20-23 “Do I Wanna Know?” If There’s Something on My Teeth
----------------------- Have you got color on your screens? Do you ever get that fear that you can’t shift your trade, that sticks around like something in your teeth? Illiquidity and short squeezes live. The 10 yr yield takes a breath between 4.60 and 4.30, and a breakout by Thanksgiving looks unlikely. But is a storm brewing after the turkey … [Read more...]
11-13-23 “Three Little Pigs” For Grown Ups!
----------------------- Little pig, inflation, let Fed in. Not by deflation; China sent, sent, sent. Well, Jay's huffin', He's puffin', He'll blowing housing in. Huffin', puffin', blowing housing in. TM Sound Bites is brought to you by PowerSeller, making hedging easy. China is exporting deflation. Consider China's Live Hog futures … [Read more...]
11-06-23 “Doctor My Eyes” Can’t See Loan Volume Increases
----------------------- Time, time, time. See what's become of BEARS. While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag. If the Fed tightens on Wednesday, then the long end should rally because it signals a recession sooner and longer.If … [Read more...]
10-30-23 Whether Fed Tightens or Does Nothing, it will be a “Hazy Shade of Winter”
----------------------- Time, time, time. See what's become of BEARS. While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag. If the Fed tightens on Wednesday, then the long end should rally because it signals a recession sooner and longer.If … [Read more...]
10-23-2023 Fed Tightening? “Baby, One More Time”
----------------------- Oh bully bearishOh, bully, bearish, how were we supposed to knowThe bully bears had the Fed in its corner. but now Chairman Powell says the higher for longer is predicated on data. Signs of the economy faltering will send the bears to the exit and let the bulls school the bears.Will Powell take his last shot at … [Read more...]
10-16-2023 Rewind to “1979”
----------------------- Khomeini 1979. Cruel Iran always has the time.Khomeini took power in 1979 from the Shah. Instability in the Middle East is constant. What happens as the War against Hamas takes months? What happens with Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighting in the north? Will Oil continue to rise? Will Iran challenge Biden’s weakness as … [Read more...]
10-09-2023 Will The Terrorist War Move Bears “Down Under?”
----------------------- Traveling in a fried-out Bear Trend On a steeper trail makes bears like zombiesBiden enables Iran to make billions on Oil by not enforcing sanctions, which fuels inflation in the US and finances acts of hate towards Israel. Will the newest Terrorist War spark flight to liquidity or impatience to wait for more … [Read more...]
10-02-2023 Speed and Curves Often Cause A “Crash”
----------------------- Steepening goes too fast. So MBS’ gonna Crash.Higher rates in the long end than the short end annoyed mortgages. Prices fell, and coupon stack decompressed, confusing everyone from borrowers to hedgers with speeds and curves.Will last week mark the death of the bears? The 4.96 barrier to the 10 yr yield looks … [Read more...]
09-25-2023 “Nevermore” Timing is Everything
----------------------- Listen to Fed’s freeze, whispers sell Bonds, please. Don't send bears to the path of Nevermore. While Bonds nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping, As of some Bears gently rapping, rapping at resistance’s door. “’Tis some wanderer,” Notes muttered, “tapping at resistance’s door—Only this and nothing … [Read more...]
09-18-2023 Bonds are “Looking Through You”
----------------------- Fed’s not the same.Fed’s lips are moving. Bonds cannot hear. Jay’s voice is hounding markets with one of these days markets POW to the moon. The Fed wants the long end to not jump the gun while it jumps the shark.It threatens another tightening to keep markets in line, but it only proves the Fed’s show is … [Read more...]
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