----------------------- Listen to Fed’s freeze, whispers sell Bonds, please. Don't send bears to the path of Nevermore. While Bonds nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping, As of some Bears gently rapping, rapping at resistance’s door. “’Tis some wanderer,” Notes muttered, “tapping at resistance’s door—Only this and nothing … [Read more...]
09-18-2023 Bonds are “Looking Through You”
----------------------- Fed’s not the same.Fed’s lips are moving. Bonds cannot hear. Jay’s voice is hounding markets with one of these days markets POW to the moon. The Fed wants the long end to not jump the gun while it jumps the shark.It threatens another tightening to keep markets in line, but it only proves the Fed’s show is … [Read more...]
09-11-2023 Will There Be Crowing or “Dancing in the Moonlight”?
----------------------- Every trader here is out of sight. They will scalp, and they will bite. They keep things loose, Fed keeps things tight. Everybody was Dancin' in the Job’s light. The Bond bulls and bears dance to new news. What unexpected data will lead to crowing under a harvest moon? Will the bulls retest 4.11 in the 10 year … [Read more...]
09-04-2023 Decelerating US Economy, “War Pigs” Want Mayhem!
----------------------- Yield curve’s short end hides itself away. Fed only started the war. Despite the bearish trend, the Fed is stuck with one more tightening, if they dare. The Bond Bears move with no momentum or conviction.Each round of data adds more weight to a decelerating US economy. Ironically, the bears root for global growth … [Read more...]
08-28-2023 “I Saw The Sign” It Was High Tech
----------------------- Bonds saw The Sign, and it opened up their eyes. They saw The Sign. Bears are demanding without understanding.Another week brings another attack on recent high yields but with no breakthrough above the pre-financial crisis resistance of 4.40 to 5.35 in the 10 yr yield.Is growth Konjunktur or Wachstum? The first German … [Read more...]
08-21-2023 “Rainy Day Women” Who is Getting Stoned Now?
----------------------- 08-21-2023 "Rainy Day Women" Who is Getting Stoned Now? Data stone you when you’re tryin' to lock a loan. Then data stone you when keeping all your loans. But you would not feel so all alone. Everybody will get stoned. The Bond Bears reign. How can they take mortgage rates to 8%? They throw stones. They cast … [Read more...]
08-14-2023 How’s Your Appetite? “Eat the Rich”
----------------------- Well, rates moved up last morningOn the wrong side of the tradeAnd now Bonds got to thinkin'About all those things Jay saidAbout rich MBS tradesAnd how they make apps sick.In Japan and Europe, inflation eased, tanking the Dollar and sinking Oil. But, the bearish US news caused rates to rise amid erratic price … [Read more...]
08-07-2023 “On Melancholy Hill” May Lower Mortgage Rates
----------------------- Up on Melancholy Hill, There's a data tree. Are they here for bears or bulls? The curve believes that the Fed’s restrictive policy will constrain growth and choke off inflation. Interpreted data drive rates and yield spreads.As a result, Friday’s Job report gives the Bulls a reason to reverse the bear trend this … [Read more...]
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