----------------------- We follow the rate drop and down to Reno Mark Listening to the wind - of change. Mortgages reached our target of 7% because the Fed acknowledged the need to reduce its policy restraint, and the radical climate agenda failed at COP28. Near term, without any fresh data to feed the feeding frenzy, look for a … [Read more...]
12-11-23 The World Says “You Spin Me Round”
----------------------- If Bonds get to know Joe’s game. Well, then rates will trace Jobs private number, downward. The world is upset at the US fiscal irresponsibility. Despite its recklessness, the US has relatively low rates, higher indebtedness, and remains THE reserve currency. So, the global resentment of the US, makes sense. They … [Read more...]
12-04-23 Recent Indicators Suggest “A New Day Has Come”
----------------------- We’ve been waiting for so long, For Fed tightening to stop. Since the new bull market began in early November, long-term rates have dropped 50 bps even after modest month-end profit-taking. The bullish fundamental picture appears bright with: Economic weakening in China, Deflating prices in Europe, Softening US … [Read more...]
11-27-23 Uncertainty’s Pickett Fence of Obstacles “In the Midnight Hour”
----------------------- Notes gonna wait till the midnight hour. That's when their yields come tumbling down Foreign markets and midnight meetings impact mortgage rates. Gold tells us that uncertainty is rising from OPEC’s supply adjustments, China’s exporting of deflation, Japan’s attempt to exit model land for real prices and rates, and … [Read more...]
11-20-23 “Do I Wanna Know?” If There’s Something on My Teeth
----------------------- Have you got color on your screens? Do you ever get that fear that you can’t shift your trade, that sticks around like something in your teeth? Illiquidity and short squeezes live. The 10 yr yield takes a breath between 4.60 and 4.30, and a breakout by Thanksgiving looks unlikely. But is a storm brewing after the turkey … [Read more...]
11-13-23 “Three Little Pigs” For Grown Ups!
----------------------- Little pig, inflation, let Fed in. Not by deflation; China sent, sent, sent. Well, Jay's huffin', He's puffin', He'll blowing housing in. Huffin', puffin', blowing housing in. TM Sound Bites is brought to you by PowerSeller, making hedging easy. China is exporting deflation. Consider China's Live Hog futures … [Read more...]
11-06-23 “Doctor My Eyes” Can’t See Loan Volume Increases
----------------------- Time, time, time. See what's become of BEARS. While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag. If the Fed tightens on Wednesday, then the long end should rally because it signals a recession sooner and longer.If … [Read more...]
10-30-23 Whether Fed Tightens or Does Nothing, it will be a “Hazy Shade of Winter”
----------------------- Time, time, time. See what's become of BEARS. While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag. If the Fed tightens on Wednesday, then the long end should rally because it signals a recession sooner and longer.If … [Read more...]
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