The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in the run-up to the 2024 Presidential election underscores the intricate balance between macroeconomic management and the more nuanced elements of the financial sector, such as MSRs. Stakeholders in the mortgage industry, as well as broader financial institutions. Given the relationship between interest rates and MSRs, the Federal Reserve’s decision will undoubtedly influence MSR dynamics. Today, Doug Duncan, Chief Economist of Fannie Mae and Adam Quinones, Founder of dataQollab sat down with Matt Graham, Les Parker and David Lykken to have a round table discussion on what will be most likely the forecast for interest rates and MSR for the 4th Quarter of 2023 and 2024.
Interest rate and MSR outlook for Q4 of 2023 and 2024 with Doug Duncan, Adam Quinones, Matt Graham, Les Parker and David Lykken
Important Links
- Escape from Model Land
- LinkedIn – Doug Duncan
- LinkedIn – Adam Quinones
- LinkedIn – Matt Graham
- LinkedIn – Les Parker
Panelists:
Douglas G. Duncan is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, responsible for economic forecasts and analysis within the housing and mortgage markets, strategic research regarding the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry, and enterprise strategy planning and execution. He leads numerous strategic and research working groups, including the House Price Forecast, policy, research, and strategic planning working groups.
Under his leadership, Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group (ESR) won the NABE Outlook Award, presented annually for the most accurate GDP and Treasury note yield forecasts, in both 2015 and 2016 – the first recipient in the award’s history to capture the honor two years in a row. In addition, ESR was awarded by Pulsenomics for best home price forecast.
Named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek’s 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate, Duncan is Fannie Mae’s source for information and analyses on demographics and the external business and economic environment; the implications of changes in economic activity on the company’s strategy and execution; and for forecasting overall housing, economic, and mortgage market activity.
Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. His experience also includes work on the Financial Institutions. Project in the U.S. Department of Agriculture and service as a LEGIS Fellow and staff member with the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs for Congressman Bill McCollum in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Duncan received his Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from Texas A&M University and his B.S. and M.S. in Agricultural Economics from North Dakota State University.
Adam Quinones is the Founder and Managing Partner of dataQollab. Their practice caters to capital markets use cases with an emphasis on unifying data from many disparate sources and elegantly connecting data to analytical libraries and visualization tools. Our service specializes in interest rate risk management, asset valuation, trading algorithms, automated data cleansing,
Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!
He’s been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, and alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.
Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry’s most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily’s rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.
He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he’d care to admit.
Les Parker is the Managing Director at Transformational Mortgage Solutions Advisory Board Member for Ainsworth Advisors; and has served as the Senior Vice President of Industry Relations and Consulting at LoanLogics, a technology and services provider focused on improving mortgage loan quality, performance, and reliability throughout the loan life-cycle. His responsibilities included managing the company’s life of loan analytics and monitoring capabilities, overseeing consulting services, contributing to the strategic planning team, and communicating with industry leaders to develop and maintain positive relationships. He focused on identifying threats and strategic opportunities.
Parker has executive mortgage banking experience in capital markets, servicing, operations, production, and financial management. Parker has served as director of the largest private issuer of CMOS. His educational background covers music, religious studies, mortgage banking, mathematics, and business administration. Parker holds a BBA in Finance, and other degrees, and has held numerous securities licenses. Parker is a Master Certified Mortgage Banker, a designation conferred by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Parker writes, speaks, and provides audio content, Since the late 1980s, he publishes a daily newsletter connecting global macroeconomics to the US interest rate movement.