Weekly AI Update with Pavan Agarwal: The AI Bubble Is Deflating: What MIT Gets Right—and Mortgage Leaders Must Face

This episode dives into a sobering—and necessary—reality check for the mortgage industry: the AI hype cycle is peaking, and the bubble is beginning to deflate. Drawing on a new MIT Sloan Management Review report, David Lykken and Pavan Agarwal unpack why scattered AI experiments and “ChatGPT-as-strategy” thinking are setting lenders up for disappointment, not transformation. The conversation explores Amara’s Law, the hidden economic traps of subsidized AI platforms, and why true competitive advantage will come from agentic AI, first-principles thinking, and a shift toward zero-UI experiences. For mortgage leaders trying to separate signal from noise, this episode lays out what to stop doing now—and what to bet on if you want to still be relevant five years from today.