05-12-2026 “War of Change” or Peace
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It’s a truth that in every war
Worlds collide, and deals get brokered.
Oil producers shut in wells when they run out of storage, and analysts say Iran will hit its limit in May. So, expect Iran to strike a peace deal. Consequently, assume oil stays below $100, then drifts below $80 by late May.
Meanwhile, look for fireworks in Ukraine to end in July, pushing prices under $70. Cheaper energy supports solid U.S. growth and mild inflation, pulling long‑term rates lower.
I feel it in my veins. These wars are going away.
Everything’s about to change.
These views are mine. Join TMSpotlight to see how war news changes mortgage rates.
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Song: War of Change (2012) Thousand Foot Krutch
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Les Parker, CMB Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions
Les Parker is the Managing Director at Transformational Mortgage Solutions Advisory Board Member for Ainsworth Advisors; and has served as the Senior Vice President of Industry Relations and Consulting at LoanLogics, a technology and services provider focused on improving mortgage loan quality, performance, and reliability throughout the loan life-cycle. His responsibilities included managing the company’s life of loan analytics and monitoring capabilities, overseeing consulting services, contributing to the strategic planning team, and communicating with industry leaders to develop and maintain positive relationships. He focused on identifying threats and strategic opportunities. Parker has executive mortgage banking experience in capital markets, servicing, operations, production, and financial management. Parker has served as director of the largest private issuer of CMOS. His educational background covers music, religious studies, mortgage banking, mathematics, and business administration. Parker holds a BBA in Finance, and other degrees, and has held numerous securities licenses. Parker is a Master Certified Mortgage Banker, a designation conferred by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Parker writes, speaks, and provides audio content, Since the late 1980s, he publishes a daily newsletter connecting global macroeconomics to the US interest rate movement.