Mortgage Markets at a Crossroads: Rates, FHA Reform, AI, and the Fight for Market Share in 2026

Mortgage Markets at a Crossroads: Rates, FHA Reform, AI, and the Fight for Market Share in 2026

Show notes:

TMSpotlight:

01-06.2026 Patience in 2026 Because “Tomorrow is a Long Time”
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If tomorrow wasn’t such a long time, then range trading would mean nothing to us at all.

Significant political and economic events in 2026 will affect US credit markets. Yet, expect the 10-year yield to remain between 3.70 and 5.00. Mortgage lenders should be satisfied with mortgage rates between 5.8 and 7.20.

The most considerable risk to a significant rise in mortgage rates should come from a grand bargain on national healthcare. Alternatively, the emerging US Goldilocks’ economy has rising wages, GDP above 3%, and inflation trending towards 2%.

And we’d trust in low rates once again

These views are mine. Find patience in 2026 at TMSpotlight.com.
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Song: “Tomorrow Is a Long Time” (1963). Bob Dylan recorded it in 1963 during a live performance, but did not release it until a greatest-hits album in 1971.


The Lykken on Lending program will feature our Weekly Mortgage Updates with Adam DeSanctis and his MBA Mortgage Minute, and then Les Parker’s TMSpotlighta macroeconomic perspective on the economy with a music parody. That leads to Matt Graham of MBS Live providing you a rate & market update, followed by David Kittle, Chief Executive Officer @ Cypress Mortgage Capital, to discuss mortgage originations. Then we have Alice Alvey of Union Home providing a regulatory & legislative update, then Allen Pollack giving us a Tech Report on the latest technology impacting our industry. Finally, we wrap up the first half of the program with Marc Helm, Senior Executive Partner @ Transformational Mortgage Solutions, talking about Loan Servicing and the “Agencies”.