10-30-23 Whether Fed Tightens or Does Nothing, it will be a “Hazy Shade of Winter”

10-30-23 Whether Fed Tightens or Does Nothing, it will be a “Hazy Shade of Winter”

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Time, time, time.  See what's become of BEARS.  While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag.  If the Fed tightens on Wednesday, then the long end should rally because it signals a recession sooner and longer.If the Fed does nothing, as expected, then the historically large bet on higher rates creates a short cover rally.  As a result, expect mortgage rates to start dropping.  But the industry stays in a hazy Shade of Winter.-------------------Song: Hazy Shade of Winter (1968)  The 1987 Bangles cover of the Simon and Garfunkel hit used the film, Less Than Zero.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxrwImCJCqk

Les Parker, CMB

Former senior vice president of a national technology and service company.

Les Parker Les Parker is the Managing Director at Transformational Mortgage Solutions Advisory Board Member for Ainsworth Advisors; and has served as the Senior Vice President of Industry Relations and Consulting at LoanLogics, a technology and services provider focused on improving mortgage loan quality, performance, and reliability throughout the loan life-cycle. His responsibilities included managing the company’s life of loan analytics and monitoring capabilities, overseeing consulting services, contributing to the strategic planning team, and communicating with industry leaders to develop and maintain positive relationships. He focused on identifying threats and strategic opportunities. Parker has executive mortgage banking experience in capital markets, servicing, operations, production, and financial management. Parker has served as director of the largest private issuer of CMOS. His educational background covers music, religious studies, mortgage banking, mathematics, and business administration. Parker holds a BBA in Finance, and other degrees, and has held numerous securities licenses. Parker is a Master Certified Mortgage Banker, a designation conferred by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Parker writes, speaks, and provides audio content,  Since the late 1980s, he publishes a daily newsletter connecting global macroeconomics to the US interest rate movement.