----------------------- Khomeini 1979. Cruel Iran always has the time.Khomeini took power in 1979 from the Shah. Instability in the Middle East is constant. What happens as the War against Hamas takes months? What happens with Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighting in the north? Will Oil continue to rise? Will Iran challenge Biden’s weakness as … [Read more...]
10-09-2023 Will The Terrorist War Move Bears “Down Under?”
----------------------- Traveling in a fried-out Bear Trend On a steeper trail makes bears like zombiesBiden enables Iran to make billions on Oil by not enforcing sanctions, which fuels inflation in the US and finances acts of hate towards Israel. Will the newest Terrorist War spark flight to liquidity or impatience to wait for more … [Read more...]
10-02-2023 Speed and Curves Often Cause A “Crash”
----------------------- Steepening goes too fast. So MBS’ gonna Crash.Higher rates in the long end than the short end annoyed mortgages. Prices fell, and coupon stack decompressed, confusing everyone from borrowers to hedgers with speeds and curves.Will last week mark the death of the bears? The 4.96 barrier to the 10 yr yield looks … [Read more...]
09-25-2023 “Nevermore” Timing is Everything
----------------------- Listen to Fed’s freeze, whispers sell Bonds, please. Don't send bears to the path of Nevermore. While Bonds nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping, As of some Bears gently rapping, rapping at resistance’s door. “’Tis some wanderer,” Notes muttered, “tapping at resistance’s door—Only this and nothing … [Read more...]
09-18-2023 Bonds are “Looking Through You”
----------------------- Fed’s not the same.Fed’s lips are moving. Bonds cannot hear. Jay’s voice is hounding markets with one of these days markets POW to the moon. The Fed wants the long end to not jump the gun while it jumps the shark.It threatens another tightening to keep markets in line, but it only proves the Fed’s show is … [Read more...]
09-11-2023 Will There Be Crowing or “Dancing in the Moonlight”?
----------------------- Every trader here is out of sight. They will scalp, and they will bite. They keep things loose, Fed keeps things tight. Everybody was Dancin' in the Job’s light. The Bond bulls and bears dance to new news. What unexpected data will lead to crowing under a harvest moon? Will the bulls retest 4.11 in the 10 year … [Read more...]
09-04-2023 Decelerating US Economy, “War Pigs” Want Mayhem!
----------------------- Yield curve’s short end hides itself away. Fed only started the war. Despite the bearish trend, the Fed is stuck with one more tightening, if they dare. The Bond Bears move with no momentum or conviction.Each round of data adds more weight to a decelerating US economy. Ironically, the bears root for global growth … [Read more...]
08-28-2023 “I Saw The Sign” It Was High Tech
----------------------- Bonds saw The Sign, and it opened up their eyes. They saw The Sign. Bears are demanding without understanding.Another week brings another attack on recent high yields but with no breakthrough above the pre-financial crisis resistance of 4.40 to 5.35 in the 10 yr yield.Is growth Konjunktur or Wachstum? The first German … [Read more...]
08-21-2023 “Rainy Day Women” Who is Getting Stoned Now?
----------------------- 08-21-2023 "Rainy Day Women" Who is Getting Stoned Now? Data stone you when you’re tryin' to lock a loan. Then data stone you when keeping all your loans. But you would not feel so all alone. Everybody will get stoned. The Bond Bears reign. How can they take mortgage rates to 8%? They throw stones. They cast … [Read more...]
08-14-2023 How’s Your Appetite? “Eat the Rich”
----------------------- Well, rates moved up last morningOn the wrong side of the tradeAnd now Bonds got to thinkin'About all those things Jay saidAbout rich MBS tradesAnd how they make apps sick.In Japan and Europe, inflation eased, tanking the Dollar and sinking Oil. But, the bearish US news caused rates to rise amid erratic price … [Read more...]
08-07-2023 “On Melancholy Hill” May Lower Mortgage Rates
----------------------- Up on Melancholy Hill, There's a data tree. Are they here for bears or bulls? The curve believes that the Fed’s restrictive policy will constrain growth and choke off inflation. Interpreted data drive rates and yield spreads.As a result, Friday’s Job report gives the Bulls a reason to reverse the bear trend this … [Read more...]
07-31-2023 “Yogi Bear” Oops Boo Boo
----------------------- Chairman Powell is smarter than the average bear;Chairman Powell is always in the trader's hair.At the Banker’s Table, you will find him there,Stuffing down more data than the average bear.What happens to rates for the rest of the year? The Fed has set up the markets for disruptive moves based on data. If so, then which … [Read more...]
07-24-2023 Opposing Traffic Causes “Space Truckin” Congestion
----------------------- Well, we had a lot of luck with Bull Trends We always had a ball with Bears.We’re trading all the crazy curves. Is the Fed sending us to the MURKY Way. Recently two-way mechanical trading reduced the price market-makers charge to hedge, which brought order to mortgage pricing. Global economic and … [Read more...]
07-17-2023 “Tom Sawyer” Will the 10 Yr Yield Be Adventure or Mishap?
----------------------- 7.17.23 "Tom Sawyer" Will the 10 Yr Yield Be Adventure or Mishap? Inflation warriorMean, old hawk.Today's Tom Sawyer Mean, new doveAre aggressive hikes gone? Last week, the market presumed Doves won as hawkish Jim Bullard resigned as St. Louis Fed President to lead Purdue’s School of Business. Buyers buy … [Read more...]
07-10-2023 Will the Economy “Rock & Roll” Into a Slowdown
----------------------- 7.10.23 Will the Economy "Rock & Roll" Into a Slowdown Uh, Uh, Flush Flush Ah. Finally, the bears reached our 10 yr yield target of 4.10. The bears ended the secular bull market in 2022, and all bull comebacks crashed. With many central banks tightening over 400 basis points in less than a year, when will the … [Read more...]
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