Show notes:
TMSpotlight:
08-19-2024 Lags Happen, So "Knockin' On Heavens Door"
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Job’s long black cloud is comin' down. Bulls are Knockin' On Rally's Door.
Will recession odds rise faster than falling inflation expectations? The bond market expects the Fed will ease multiple times before Dec 31. Yet, uncertainty abounds from global political and economic tensions. Bonds price forward three years, while the short end anticipates three months.
So, the short end will drop further as eases happen. But, the long end will lag, and MBS will continue to lag regardless.
Knock, knock, rally on Heaven's door.
Knock, knock, knockin' on Heaven's door.
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Song: Knockin' On Heaven's Door (1973) Bob Dylan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-sVpVIovKk