----------------------- Have you got color on your screens? Do you ever get that fear that you can’t shift your trade, that sticks around like something in your teeth? Illiquidity and short squeezes live. The 10 yr yield takes a breath between 4.60 and 4.30, and a breakout by Thanksgiving looks unlikely. But is a storm brewing after the turkey … [Read more...]
11-13-23 “Three Little Pigs” For Grown Ups!
----------------------- Little pig, inflation, let Fed in. Not by deflation; China sent, sent, sent. Well, Jay's huffin', He's puffin', He'll blowing housing in. Huffin', puffin', blowing housing in. TM Sound Bites is brought to you by PowerSeller, making hedging easy. China is exporting deflation. Consider China's Live Hog futures … [Read more...]
11-06-23 “Doctor My Eyes” Can’t See Loan Volume Increases
----------------------- Time, time, time. See what's become of BEARS. While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag. If the Fed tightens on Wednesday, then the long end should rally because it signals a recession sooner and longer.If … [Read more...]
10-30-23 Whether Fed Tightens or Does Nothing, it will be a “Hazy Shade of Winter”
----------------------- Time, time, time. See what's become of BEARS. While BULLS look around for their possibilities.The Less than Zero curve is smaller so the Fed takes solace with high bond yields that provide economic drag. If the Fed tightens on Wednesday, then the long end should rally because it signals a recession sooner and longer.If … [Read more...]
10-23-2023 Fed Tightening? “Baby, One More Time”
----------------------- Oh bully bearishOh, bully, bearish, how were we supposed to knowThe bully bears had the Fed in its corner. but now Chairman Powell says the higher for longer is predicated on data. Signs of the economy faltering will send the bears to the exit and let the bulls school the bears.Will Powell take his last shot at … [Read more...]
10-16-2023 Rewind to “1979”
----------------------- Khomeini 1979. Cruel Iran always has the time.Khomeini took power in 1979 from the Shah. Instability in the Middle East is constant. What happens as the War against Hamas takes months? What happens with Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighting in the north? Will Oil continue to rise? Will Iran challenge Biden’s weakness as … [Read more...]
10-09-2023 Will The Terrorist War Move Bears “Down Under?”
----------------------- Traveling in a fried-out Bear Trend On a steeper trail makes bears like zombiesBiden enables Iran to make billions on Oil by not enforcing sanctions, which fuels inflation in the US and finances acts of hate towards Israel. Will the newest Terrorist War spark flight to liquidity or impatience to wait for more … [Read more...]
10-02-2023 Speed and Curves Often Cause A “Crash”
----------------------- Steepening goes too fast. So MBS’ gonna Crash.Higher rates in the long end than the short end annoyed mortgages. Prices fell, and coupon stack decompressed, confusing everyone from borrowers to hedgers with speeds and curves.Will last week mark the death of the bears? The 4.96 barrier to the 10 yr yield looks … [Read more...]
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