2.19.24 China on Population, "Take It Easy" ---------------------------- Well, we’re buying down the locks. Trying to loosen our loans. Got a world of guidelines on our minds. Let’s look long-term. China’s fertility rate is among the lowest globally. It fell below its replacement rate in 1991. As a result, its population likely will collapse … [Read more...]
02-12-24 Fed Gives Bears “Just What I (They) Needed”
----------------------- I don't mind correcting here, waiting all the time. Bonds are waiting for the Fed to see inflation crashing down. Massive US debt supports global bank reserves but weakens long-term economic health. Additionally, the decline in the Fed's reverse repo balances put liquidity levels at risk. So, before the Fed eases rates, … [Read more...]
02-05-24 When Does A “Zombie” Stop Fighting?
----------------------- Another model's breaking Hard to take it over.The Fed is finished raising rates, yet the fight between the Bond market and the Federal Reserve continues. Bonds see data showing slumping inflation and sagging growth, while the Fed sees firm Jobs and solid consumer confidence. Both see the need for US borrowing. But how … [Read more...]
01-29-24 “Break The Rules” To Break The Ice Jam
----------------------- Erratic buys Blow our minds Bears feel alright What does mechanical trading, dipping volatility, and bubbling crude tell us? Short-term Treasuries are losing hope in a March ease while the long-end is ambivalent. Bonds like ebbing inflation, but they wonder about persistent debt-driven growth.The 10-year rate trend … [Read more...]
01-22-24 It’s A “Love Story” If Buyers Say Yes!
----------------------- Bonds got tired of waiting. Wondering if Jay was ever coming around. Did the Bond buyers buy on Friday? Happy consumers bought by draining savings and using credit cards earlier in the week. Where did the new era of frugality go? Will the Fed reduce its selling of Treasuries (Quantitative tightening) to avoid liquidity … [Read more...]
01-15-24 “Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood” Signs of Misunderstanding
----------------------- China, does your deflation hurt now? Sometimes, rates feel a little glad. What inflation? Since the US PPI fell, China’s exports increased, and yr/yr Chinese CPI dropped; does that mean China exported deflation? Short-term rates like the 2-year Treasury notes are convinced falling inflation will cause the Fed to ease … [Read more...]
01-08-24 The Rate Trend is “Searching for It’s Baby”
----------------------- Bulls wonder, they wonder why Bonds had to go down this way The rate trend is down, but the 10-year yield needs to correct between 4.10 and 4.25% to relieve the pressure from recent short selling by fast money. Meanwhile, dropping back below 3.90 invigorates the bulls. Fundamentals remain mixed. Will ships avoiding the … [Read more...]
12.18.23 Mortgage Rates “Winds of Change” Give Renters Hope To Buy
----------------------- We follow the rate drop and down to Reno Mark Listening to the wind - of change. Mortgages reached our target of 7% because the Fed acknowledged the need to reduce its policy restraint, and the radical climate agenda failed at COP28. Near term, without any fresh data to feed the feeding frenzy, look for a … [Read more...]
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